3Q preview: We expect Shinsegae Food’s consolidated sales and operating profit to risea respective 17.4% and 45% y-y in 3Q to KRW331.5b and KRW8.8b, in line withconsensus forecasts. A solid 1H performance should be sustained as catering prices andorders increase, food manufacturing sales grow through captive channels, and therestaurant division narrows losses by streamlining operations.
Worries priced in: The market is concerned about the cost impact of a minimum wagehike and stricter catering regulations. A 16.4% rise in the minimum wage toKRW7,530/hour from 2018 would increase labor costs, but we believe Shinsegae Foodcan minimize the impact through more efficient labor allocation, automation, andcatering ASP hikes. A higher minimum wage could also boost demand for ready-madeproducts from catering and restaurant businesses. Meanwhile, we believe stricter cateringregulations will have a limited impact on the firm, as: 1) the economies of scale needed tosucceed in catering create high entry barriers for SMEs; 2) consumers are more confidentabout the quality and hygiene large firms offers; 3) the government has decided to allowmarket principles to govern catering bids in the private sector; and 4) only a handful ofpublic institutions will be subject to new regulations.
题目的素材。选自2003年第一期《麦肯锡周刊》(The Mckinsey Quartly)。请注意，这已经是这本注明的经济管理类杂志第二次入选考研英语试题的素材库了。原文的名字叫“A wholesale shift in European groceries”，翻译成汉语，为“欧洲日常用品销售向批发转型”。文章的作者是三位麦肯锡集团在快消行业的咨询师Javier Castrillo, Jose Manuel Martinez, 和 Dieter Messner。整个文章主要描述的目前欧洲的日用消费品零售商(主要是连锁大超市集团)在欧洲面临的困境——增长乏力。而它们却忽视了现在消费者的习惯正在发生改变这一事实。
Lowering target but downside limited: To reflect cost and regulatory issues, welower our 12-month target price for Shinsegae Food to KRW170,000 and our forward P/Etarget multiple from 21x (the stock’s post-2015 average) to 18.5x (the average 2018multiple of foreign food distribution firms and near Shinsegae Food’s historical low). Thatsaid, with the stock 27% off its peak, we believe worries are priced in. At 15.5x forwardP/E, Shinsegae Food is trading where it did when regulations were severe in 2012, but thecompany is now much more diversified and its EPS is growing more quickly. We find itattractive relative to its growth prospects and maintain BUY. We believe the firm’senterprise-wide earnings structure will keep improving through 2018, driven by growinglucrative food manufacturing sales. Sales should be particularly strong at Emart 24 onaggressive store opening and at Starbucks thanks to an expanding bakery portion of sales.
(B)Retail sales of food and drink in Europe’s largest markets are at a standstill, leaving European grocery retailers hungry for opportunities to grow. Most leading retails have already tried e-commerce, with limited success, and expansion aboard. But almost all have ignored the big profitable opportunity in their own back yard: the wholesale food and drink trade, which appears to be just the kind of market retailers need。
(F) For example,(原文中没有，为命题专家添加，为了让考生识别此段和上段的关系) wholesale food and drink sales came to ＄268 billion in France, Germany, Spain, America in 2000 --- more than 40 percent of retail sales. Moreover, average overall margins are higher in wholesale than in retail ; wholesale demand from the food service sector is growing quickly as more Europeans eat out more often ;and in the competitive dynamics of this fragmented industry are at last man it feasible for wholesalers to consolidate。(D)此处为命题专家分的段落，原文中是一个段落All in all, this clearly seems to be a market in which big retailers could profitably apply their gigantic scale, existing infrastructure, and proven skills in the management of product ranges, logistics, and marketing intelligence。